MJ Research Report: Washington State 2015 Legal Pot Sales Outlook: $350M To $495M

By Joe Armes

Washington: 2014 was a groundbreaking year for legal recreational cannabis in Washington State.  The year was about setting the groundwork for the future with opening of the first recreational cannabis businesses and establishing a steady supply for the market. While the Washington State Liquor Control Board (LCB) won’t have the complete December sales data published for another couple days it looks like the year will end with approximately $64M in sales and 99 licensed retail stores.  Once the complete data is available we will provide a 2014 summary with key business insights.  While we begin this new year with myriad of concerns to address including medical cannabis, local bans, price levels and tax structure the theme for cannabis businesses in 2015 appears to be growth.  In this addition of the MJ Research Report we take look at what growth predictions we can make for 2015 with the help of a crystal ball and some statistical modeling (okay, it’s mostly statistics).

Daily Average Sales Forecast

Daily Average Sales Forecast

Utilizing the 25 weeks of sales data we have from 2014, Analytically Correct has modeled Washington State’s legal recreational cannabis sales for 2015.  We enter 2015 with many unknowns that might impact the overall market.  This is where the crystal ball comes into play.  The forecast assumes that sales continue on the current track.  Action from Washington State legislature or federal government, unstable/unobtainable pricing, change in the rate of license approvals from the LCB, prevention of business operations by counties or municipalities, etc. all could have an impact on actual sales (some of which could be positive impacts).  Here are the key predictions from the forecast:

  • Approximately $424M in combined producer, processor and retailer sales for Washington State in 2015 (95% statistical confidence interval for the forecast ranges from ~$350M to ~$495M)
  • Over $1M in average daily combined producer, processor and retailer sales by July 2015 (95% statistically confident)
  • Approximately 250 active retail stores in operation by the end of 2015 (95% statistical confidence interval for the forecast ranges from ~225 to ~275)

If you are a producer, processor or retailer who would like to be a confidential data provider for the dashboard and receive custom business insights or would like more information about business intelligence and analytics feel free to contact Joe at joe@analyticallycorrect.com.

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About Joe Armes: Joe is the founder of Analytically Correct, a data analytics services company that provides custom analytics solutions that transform data into insights to allow decision makers to focus on what adds most value. His passion is to work with organizations with deeply rooted causes to help them gain access to the knowledge needed to make timely and informed decisions.